Pelin Gülüm Taş

% VERIFIED; verified 2026-10-11
@article{orbit-775908644fcf5cd8,
  title = {Time Preference in Decisions With Recurring Payoffs},
  author = {Gülüm, Pelin and Maknoon, Yousef and Montibeller, Gilberto and Rezaei, Jafar},
  journal = {Journal of Behavioral Decision Making},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {39},
  number = {4},
  eid = {e70091},
  doi = {10.1002/bdm.70091},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.70091},
  issn = {0894-3257, 1099-0771},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  abstract = {ABSTRACT Time preference plays a central role in decision‐making, shaping how individuals value outcomes that occur at different points in time. While most research on time preference focuses on one‐off payoffs, many real‐world decisions generate recurring consequences that unfold continuously over time. Despite their prevalence, little is known about how recurring payoff structures influence intertemporal preferences. We propose that recurring payoffs reduce discounting by promoting temporal integration. By highlighting the continuity of future consequences, recurring payoffs encourage individuals to form a more temporally integrated representation of outcomes rather than evaluating consequences as isolated events. Drawing on the choice isolation argument and the literature on choice bundling and choice bracketing, we argue that this representation reduces the salience of immediate‐versus‐delayed trade‐offs and ultimately lowers discount rates. We test this hypothesis in two experiments involving 284 individuals. Participants completed intertemporal choice tasks in either the gain or loss domain, with choices varying along two additional dimensions: payoff structure (one‐off vs. recurring) and outcome magnitude (small vs. large). Results revealed significantly lower discounting in recurring payoff conditions than in comparable one‐off conditions. The findings are consistent with the proposition that recurring payoff structures encourage a more temporally integrated evaluation of future outcomes, leading individuals to place less weight on immediacy when making intertemporal choices. This study extends the time‐preference literature by introducing recurring payoff structures as a distinct class of intertemporal outcomes and identifying temporal integration as a potential mechanism through which payoff structure influences discounting. It further demonstrates that the magnitude effect extends to recurring payoff environments, suggesting that outcome size continues to shape discounting even when consequences unfold repeatedly over time. These findings suggest that making the recurring nature of future consequences salient may be a promising avenue for promoting more future‐oriented decision‐making.},
  keywords = {discount rate, recurring payoffs, temporal integration, time preference},
}

% VERIFIED; verified 2026-10-11
@article{orbit-84189f25b1924300,
  title = {Intertemporal Judgements in Multi‐Attribute Decision‐Making: Biases and Mitigation Ideas},
  author = {Gülüm, Pelin and Maknoon, Yousef and Rezaei, Jafar},
  journal = {Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {33},
  number = {2},
  eid = {e70035},
  doi = {10.1002/mcda.70035},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.70035},
  issn = {1057-9214, 1099-1360},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  abstract = {ABSTRACT Intertemporal judgements are susceptible to biases that can distort evaluations and lead to inconsistent choices. While time‐related biases have been studied extensively from a descriptive perspective, little attention has been given to prescriptive approaches and the complex trade‐offs involved in multi‐attribute decision‐making (MADM). This study provides a comprehensive review of the effects of such biases on the MADM process. Drawing on evidence from behavioural economics, psychology, and decision analysis, we identify six time‐related biases and analyse the vulnerabilities they can introduce at each step of the MADM procedure. We also outline preliminary ideas that may help analysts and decision‐makers reduce these biases in the unique context of intertemporal multi‐attribute problems. Our findings highlight the importance of addressing biases from the earliest stages, such as problem structuring, and underscore the need for further empirical research to test and refine these proposed strategies.},
  keywords = {cognitive biases, intertemporal discounting, multi-attribute decision-making, time preference},
}

% VERIFIED; verified 2026-10-11
@article{orbit-836157e89810f796,
  title = {Time's Influence: A Systematic Review of Biases in Intertemporal Decision-Making},
  author = {Gülüm Taş, Pelin and Maknoon, Yousef and Rezaei, Jafar},
  journal = {Annual Review of Psychology},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {77},
  number = {1},
  pages = {223--254},
  doi = {10.1146/annurev-psych-091924-040158},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-091924-040158},
  issn = {0066-4308, 1545-2085},
  publisher = {Annual Reviews},
  abstract = {Cognitive biases significantly influence decision-making by distorting how individuals perceive and evaluate outcomes over time. This systematic review synthesizes research from various domains, including behavioral economics, psychology, and health, to explore six time-related biases affecting intertemporal judgments and trade-offs. We analyze the underlying mechanisms of each bias, map their interrelationships, and uncover their impacts on both individual choices and societal decisions. Drawing upon empirical evidence, we propose tailored strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of these biases. Our findings contribute to the literature not only by enhancing the understanding of time-related cognitive biases but also by providing practical insights for improving decision-making and policy design aimed at promoting long-term well-being. The review concludes by highlighting critical gaps in the literature and outlining a future research agenda to further investigate and address biases in intertemporal decision-making.},
  keywords = {cognitive biases, intertemporal decision-making, time preference},
}